DX Ugly Triangle

This is the only real valid pattern i can see on the DX that accounts for the sideways pattern with the chop and slop, granted its not pretty, but its all i can think of, the only real way to be sure if this is a thrust from the triangle is to see a hard reversal on the upside, failing that i am at a lost atm, until some sort of impulsive move higher comes into the market

One thing that is noticeable is the ES is not seeing big moves on the DX weakness ie we put in new lows on the DX and the ES is not confirming nor is the EUR/USD which at this stage is to be seen as a weakness on those 2 markets

Unless the DX craps the bed serious style i got to call it as a bottoming pattern only its starting to wear most out and testing the patience of most traders that are looking for any sign of a bottom in the DX

I guess when we just "give in" then it bottoms ;-)

Gold (Short Term)

Just an update to this count, i am not selling or buying, its a market i don't want to get involved in, as its fear driven

If margin calls get called in on any reversal on the DX then i suspect Gold will get sold as forced selling will still pull this market lower, regardless of the funny mentals short term, you can use that to load up (as i would be a serious buyer at below 700 if the same script last year ran out again)

Anyhow i am just trying to use this to look for any DX bottom (yeah i know i keep looking but it don't come)

Gold has recently decided to rally stronger on the weakness of the DX, and i am not so sure its fully DX related, any potential US$ reversal or fear driven moves might see many run to Gold before Margin calls take it lower

I still think Equities are the better play to make $$$$ rather that sell short this market

Careful trying to short a fear driven market they have a habit or running far higher than many think, below $1150 and the t/l is a good start and needs to see impulsive downside i do suspect it will have some link to any DX strength only not 100% its going to be fully correlated

SPX (Nerm Term Idea 3)

Looking at the daily chart, there appears to be room to see a test of the upper trend line to this pattern, (some call it a megaphone, broadening pattern) the 50% retrace from the ATH in Oct 07 is at 1121SPX, and also the upper T/L hits about the 1130SPX area, the RSI is clearly showing a divergence that and the Summation index is telling the larger picture ain't so healthy and whilst the volume is thin it could be goosed up a bit more, but sooner or later price will catch up with the internals

Here is where you need to just step back and not be concerned with the day-day gyrations and look at the larger picture

You need to ask yourself this question

Looking at the evidence i have shown, do you think that this is setting up for a new leg far higher based the RSI and Breadth evidence??????

DYOR

XLF (flat)???

One of the reasons why i think higher near term for the SPX is the XLF ain't really fell apart yet, although we got a nice clean 5 wave structure, it rallied to a 618 of that move, but the decline from that move has not materialised in an impulsive move to the downside, hence i think that we got another leg up in a 3 wave pattern possible test the 15.15-15.25 area, so need to see how this plays out as if higher on thin volume that will lift the SPX

SPX (Nerm Term Idea 2)

The next idea is that we are involved in a larger triangle for a B wave, and the the recent high was only a wave A and now time waste for a few days (ie the holiday period) and then shoot up for a move out of the triangle and head high possibly towards 1120-1133SPX

The red line on both counts denotes where its looking wrong and with that it needs to be impulsive, overall i think higher only its this chop crap that is making trading difficult, unless you want to play with a stop at the 1084.62 low, that's a wide stop for the benefit of upside from here, and not my sort of risk vs reward, as even if saw 1130SPX from here you risk 20 points to see 20 points, hmmmm ya can keep it, i will just watch and see how the patterns gyrate and see if i get a thrust quickly or time waste to create a bigger triangle, if its a B wave triangle i quite sure where it fits in, but i can deal with that later, for now i just want to see where this goes and which path is setting up

SPX (Nerm Term Idea 1)

The recent price action stinks or being a correction, and that its either a triangle or Ending Diagonal, suffice to say, imo either way a topping process is still in progress

This is just one idea, it looks totally out of whack time wise compared to the the wave 2, generally wave 2`s and 4`s should be proportional, although there is nothing wrong with the count its just that is looks overall structure wise from a time value, but it is what is is.

AUD/USD Short Term Elliott Wave Count

Same as the AUD/CHF pair, looks like a 3 wave advance so far, so targeting a move above the last high in between 0.9267-0.9315, with risk to the 786 retracement area

AUD/CHF Short Term Elliott Wave Count

Same again, looking like a flat correction, so should see a move above the wave a crest, then see a resumption to the downside.

GBP/USD (Cable)

Looks like a 3 wave advance to me and got that corrective look to it, the target is around the prior 4th wave (16670`s ish) but essentially a 3 wave advance is what i am looking for

4HR resistance is at 16592, 16637,16691.

Baring a push above the origin of the 5 wave decline, this is setup into the target areas for a move lower.

NYSE Summation Index

Wow!!!!!

Check this out, i usually check this out every week, but failed to on Sunday due to prior engagements, anyhow i want to bring to your attention the clear BLATANT divergence now, anyone that says this is a strong market internally is not reading the market

As ever price is right, but this is a HUGE divergence, the McClellan OSc is a short term tool use for traders whilst the Summation index is a trend following indicator, and my experience of it, is that is tends to be about 2-3 weeks ahead once the divergences are in place, but that's got to be one of the biggest i have seen for a loooooonnngggg time, if ever i have see price diverge away from the breadth internals

Clearly $$$ is moving out, and its obvious on the volume front the internals are poor, (shows via the Globex gap ups)

The Summation index is not buying the moves from Sept which is why we ain't gone anywhere and its just a chop fest, and baring some serious upside and confirmation from this indicator, i still suggest and think that we are involved in a topping process, hence its a casino style market, and those that are unable to trade this type or market, either suggest using small size trades and wider stops and look at a bigger potential move and not to focus on near term 20 point whipsaws, or use vehicles like QID or SDS etc and NOT on Margin and look to build a position if you think that substantial downside is looming (for the record i still do think that is whats going to happen, we are just playing for time, but i still think the market will catch up with the internals)