Elliott Wave Forecasting Using Elliott Wave & Fibonacci Matrix

GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENT

2010-07-31T18:50:00.005+07:00

WE HAVE MOVED

The time has come to leave Blogspot and move on, although its served its purposed well, i have now moved to another website which can be found here

http://www.wavepatterntraders.com/

All the same stuff i will be posting, but a lot more organised, please be patient, as i have only got it on line the past 24 hrs, and just got the chat room up and running

Its taken me a few hours just to work out and organise the forums and categories, but its at the minimal stage i need atm

You will need to register, you will now have the chance to see my work, in various threads and forums

I will be spending most of my time on it tomorrow, but i intend to adjust things over the next days/weeks,

Improvements will be coming as/when needed , if you have any suggestions please post them in the correct forum so i get to see them

I have setup some forums that i think would be needed, however if you require others, and feel that they are needed and would help you, then post a message in forum

I hope that most of it is explanatory but if not let me know

I will be adding content over the next few days/weeks, i hope to make this a great product that helps your trading

Most of all, i hope to bring together traders, where we can discuss ideas, not only mine but your own, and a place where you can learn and discuss not just Elliott, other ideas like Harmonics and Gann etc, or whatever area you are familiar with

As the name says, its about trading wave patterns, and they come in all sorts of styles, not just Elliott Wave

Presently there is no charge, as i am trying to put together a product that i think adds value

At some stage there is going to be a subscription fee in the future, and you can make the choice to stay or leave based on if you think the site is of value to you, but for now you get free access to the website but you need to register to gain access

I can still be contacted via email

ewavenoufy@yahoo.co.uk

I haven't setup the email for the new site yet

Anyone is welcome, and that applies to the others that left the old site, even the person that i banned, yes you are welcome to become a member, as long as i don't get a repeat performance

This is a new setup, and if the members are respectful of others i am prepared to forget the history and move on, i don't want no bad feelings

However i see abusive or confrontational behaviour i will be issuing warnings and if needed banning folks

I only want members that are respectful of others, (that includes me)

If you want a forum to debate the economy or the FED,or whatever floats your boat these days, as long as its market related i am prepared to open up avenues and provide a forum if needed so you can discuss these things with other like minded members

As most know i think the news is BS, but i know that some of you like to discuss that sort of thing that's fine, now you will have a forum to talk about it, as long as the conversations are civil

Chatroll is now deceased, Friday was the last straw, i just couldn't take no more of that crap

See ya over there

PS - DO NOT JOIN IF YOU INTEND TO CAUSE TROUBLE OR GOING TO BE ABUSIVE TO OTHER MEMBER'S, YOU WILL BE BANNED, IF I FIND OUT ANYONE THAT IS CAUSING TROUBLE

YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Chatroll Issues

2010-07-30T20:59:00.001+07:00

Its pretty much screwed today

Sorry nothing i can do about it, but your be pleased to know that i have a site up and running and just trying to get the internal chatroom linked so we can finally get away from chatroll

A complete waste chatroll, it is a good product but its got too many issues which i am sure we know about

Suffice to say i will be moving over to the new site ASAP and binning Chatroll as its simple crap

GBP/USD (cable) Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-30T14:59:00.003+07:00

This has been one ugly pair to count let alone trade hence i have refrained from counting it until it has showed some promise

So taking another look at it again, its a scrappy count, but it don't break any rules, although it looks strange in some parts, it now appears to be in the 5th wave from the 22nd Jul lows

There is some very good structural resistance above at 157-15715, if this pair wants to push up higher, but if this count is correct, if should be virtually done & finished

Some Negative Divergences are starting to show at these highs, all that's needed is some proof of a reversal, i suspect that will come if the EUR/USD and DX markets reverse from there current trends

Gold Short term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-30T13:39:00.002+07:00

Currently i am counting this move as iv of [iii] in a larger [iii]/[c], so same as yesterday this needs to remain as a small bounce as a 4th wave, and then head lower to end wave [iii]

Caution should be taken if above $1175

USD/CAD Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-30T13:16:00.005+07:00

A very short term look, suggests a triangle thrust setting up, so if that thrusts higher in wave [c] then the ES should push lower

Its difficult to label it as 12,12,12, as i would need to apply some creative count, but as long as the wave d low holds, then its still valid

It looks and counts well for a triangle

However if this breaks down that should be Bullish the ES/Equities

SPX Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-30T12:52:00.003+07:00

As long as 1131.42 stays as resistance this is a valid option and marries up with the USD/CAD idea of end to wave C, and the end to the wave C on the AUD/JPY, it might still need a tiniest of pushes higher, but MUST remain under 1131.42, the same applies to the AUD/JPY pair, it MUST remain under its wave A high

These ideas i am showing with the triangle counts explain the choppy whipsaw we have been seeing, it also makes sense of the obvious 3 wave move off the April highs (no way unless being forced do i accept that as a 5 wave move)

Those that are looking at the Equity markets need to be looking at and making sense of the other risk currencies that are moving in sync with Equities

IMO you are foolish to ignore those patterns simply as those carry trades are important to where Equities are likely to go

So we potentially could of seen the high in place if yesterdays high on the SPX was a truncation, there is a chance we could of seen the wave [iv] yesterday, but until a move above 1103ES then 1107ES, i am not holding out to see a new high

I have one leg in my Bear suit, as long as the 1103ES contains any upside, i am ready to zip up my Bear suit and get my "fur coat"

AUD/JPY vs SPX

2010-07-30T12:43:00.004+07:00

As you can see they pretty much track each other tick-tick

So if i am suggesting the idea of the triangle on the AUD/JPY pair, then why cant the SPX be in a triangle???

Well it can as i will show, it works as well

There is always going to be a debate on the move from the 6/21 high into the 7/01-03 lows

Its one of those cases where it can be labelled a 5 or a 3, on the whole the move looks a 3, but the gyrations can be squared "if needed' to be a 5 if a count actually makes sense, and not forced to an agenda

The point i am trying to make is that if the patterns look and feels like a triangle on the AUD/JPY and USD/CAD pairs, then why not be looking for the same sort of pattern on the SPX/ES

As they virtually move in lock step tick-tick

The Bears see that they want to see, as do the Bulls, well i am suggesting that pretty much because of the sideways movement seen over the past few weeks, we could be tracing out a triangle as i will show in the next posting on the SPX, its got limited risk now

AUD/USD Vs AUD/JPY

2010-07-30T12:08:00.005+07:00

You can see how these pairs have fell out of sync with each other, and i am putting it down to the Summer volumes as i have noticed a few other markets not in sync

The idea is that when the Summer ends that they kick in to alignment, if not sooner

Generally these pairs move together, and its because of the USD$ weakness that has saw the AUD/USD pair rally, as opposed to the strength seen in the JPY against the AUD/JPY pair

So whilst the markets are whipping around, there is some dis-locations between many markets atm

So i am very skeptical about this rally in the AUD/USD pair, my guess is that when the DX puts in a low and the EUR/USD reversing then you see the AUD/USD pair puke

So time to pay attention to the DX and EUR/USD counts for ideas for this pair to reverse

On a big move higher in the US$, i suspect that we will also see the "risk trade" puking along with JPY strength hence the triangle idea of the AUD/JPY puking lower and the triangle idea of the USD/CAD seeing far more upside

If both those pair play out as triangles, and then the AUD/USD pair reverses, you will see once again "risk" being sold, but that might be a few days or weeks away

AUD/USD Long Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-30T12:03:00.003+07:00

if we have put in a long term top, then this rally should be a wave 2/B retrace, its just missed my 0.9080-0.9180 target band, but the decline is debatable as to if its the start of a decline

One clue would be the break of the RSI t/l, i suspect a break of the price t/l will see a break in the RSI t/l, and it should be obvious as some big bodied candles

AUD/JPY Long Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-30T10:48:00.004+07:00

Something that i have been following a while is that this pair is shaping up to be a triangle, after the savage puking from the April 30th highs (seen across the board in the "risk trade") we are trending sideways, which is just a precursor to what should be more downside

Its a reason to suggest that the overall move in "risk" is actually just stalling before the continuation lower

So what does that mean in plan English???

It means that from the April 30th highs, to suggest big upside moves in other markets, you are only seeing it in a few selective markets and not all markets are confirming the recent upside moves seen in the AUD/USD pair and ES

But Equities move off the back of the USD/CAD pair, (remember that Bullish alt triangle idea a few days back)

Well that idea aligns with this idea, and we got another month of chop ahead of us, as the real boys wont come back till Sept but overall in the whole risk trade patterns, they still suggest that those April 30th highs will likely hold, and more downside is likely over the coming months

THAT DONT MEAN WAVE 3 & A CRASH HAS ARRIVED EITHER

Of course that could change, (we trade probabilities based off the patterns thatห the edge we have) but patterns at the moment in some markets are looking like triangles, and i like the setup in this pair as a Bearish triangle (so this puke suggests "risk off" and sell Equities) and the setup in the USD/CAD pair for the Bullish triangle, that too if gets upside should see "risk off" as we know that if that pair rallies then Equities puke

So Key resistance keeps this idea of a triangle valid as long as price does not move above 80.85

AUD/GBP Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-30T10:43:00.002+07:00

Scanning some of the AUD$ crosses, i came across this setup, that might be near done, although it could still morph into a larger triangle, but its got that sideways choppy whipsaw feel and look about it, so i suspect a triangle, and once its done thrust lower in wave [c] for about another 500-600 pips from the wave [e] of the triangle

AUD/CHF Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-30T10:13:00.005+07:00

So far so good, and this is working out well, with the setup few and far between due to the holiday period and the "kids with PlayStation's" getting to move the tap around this is a welcome surprise

Jul has been a tough month for setup in the FX, hence why i haven't showed much, well nothing that i would want to trade, and if i wouldn't put money to work, i could hardly expect you guys reading this to

Although each individual trader is different, some might has done well over the past 4-6 weeks in all these choppy environment

I know my limits to what i am happy to trade and chop is where i am reluctant to get involved in

I want clear, concise structures, something that i understand and most importantly i can control risk

If the setup are no coming then i will simply walk away and look at other market, as i scam probably 30-40 charts on a weekly basis, there is very rarely something that don't look like its got a setup near or setting up

You just got to go looking for them, and its not that hard to look or put in that little bit of effort

All it takes is a quick scan, if i don't see something within the 1st 2-3 mins, then its not obvious, if its not obvious, then it really cant be a pattern that is trade able

So atm i am work this as an important reversal off the long term chart idea, key resistance has to hold, (or it becomes only 3 waves) so far the structure on the drops is impulsive, so that bodes well for the Bearish case,

FTSE Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-30T09:31:00.006+07:00

Off the highs, it can be counted as a small Leading Diagonal (LD) so either wave i or a

Bears risk is to the wave ii/b highs at 5375

Simply put if the FTSE has topped, then you don't see that breached

So any decline from here will need to start to accelerate to get to the Bear case going to the downside

So that means the the ES holds well below 1103ES and needs to stay below 96ES

There is some important news out from the US today so could be an important mover, but the gyration are complete off the 20th Jul lows

If the Bulls own this market then any decline will be weak and an abc type move and around the 5160-5200 needs to hold, any lower than 5160 (remember that's been strong support) is going to swing the case to the Bears, especially now as it should be in wave iii on the Bear case

So lets pay close attention to any drop here, as for the Bear case, it needs to be solid and really start to be puking and get below the 1x1 as that would suggest 3rd wave type move

Remember it needs to start to look and feel like a small 3rd wave off the highs for the Bear case, anything that don't look like that Bears need to be cautious about that as it could only be a 1x1, a 3rd wave regardless of the wave degree should be obvious in the context as which it is expected, so if it don't look or feel right, you should be cautious about the idea, same as the Bulls, if you only expect an abc type pullback but its showing you something far more Bearish, you need to be cautious and respect that, so we are at a near term important juncture and one that is likely setting up a trend based move and a trade that could last a few weeks

The Bullish 12,12 count is still poss here, just as it could be on the SPX, so this decline as on the SPX will need to remain corrective, ie some sort of 3 wave decline, if it start to puke and head lower than 5200-5160 odds favour a reversal and you just saw the high to the rally being put in and the start was a small LD

Near term support is at 5260

AUD/JPY Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-29T18:42:00.002+07:00

With the move pushing higher and the ES above 1107ES it looks like a trap was set yesterday and its gaping up over 1107ES via Glovex

A good pair to watch is this pair on the ES strength, the early clue was the setup to rally earlier, so i am looking at this as a 4th wave pullback, it needs to hold here or its in danger of failing

So lets watch this pair for clues on the "risk trade" and a potential bid in the ES

We know its wrong below the wave 1 high, but this is about the lowest i would want to see it to keep the idea valid as a 4th wave pullback

AUD/CHF Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-29T16:04:00.002+07:00

A closer look at the gyrations off that swing highs reveals something that can be counted as a 5 down, so risk is controlled to the prior high at 0.9601 (that's where its wrong)

If that long term chart has put in a high, then this is the setup to sell against that high at 0.9601 as the expectation is far lower, you even have a simple possible H&S here as well

AUD/CHF Long Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-29T15:58:00.004+07:00

This is as good as it gets

So far reversed off a 1x1, in what i am labelling a X wave

If you look at the near term gyrations, there is a 5 down and as i write it looks like a correction to that 5 wave decline

This pair has my attention now, and as the ES chops traders to bits, if you have access to this pair it can be setting up for a serious downside move

If you go back in the history i was tracking this on some serious declines prior to this rally and have been quietly waiting for the chance to sell it again

Well i think we are now at that stage

If you can get access to this pair, get it on your platform as i really do feel that its a good chance

We the setup few and far between atm, this is a chance to grab with both hands imo

Gold Short term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-29T15:38:00.004+07:00

The bounce has come as i suggested yesterday in chat, so now we find out if this is going to continue puking lower

So the risk is very minimal to test this idea, start pushing above $1175 and strong its going to start looking wrong

Above $1183 and that's going to create the overlap, and kill the setup, so it needs to reverse around $1175

ES Pit Session Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-29T14:49:00.003+07:00

As you can see the overall decline is looking a bit too big for wave iv, although technically it still is OK, the "right look" suggests that its wave [iv] and not iv

The fibbo ratios work well, as does the time factor for the larger 4th wave, as its yet to push back to a 382 of [iii] so it still has some wiggle room, hence the new low if the low not in for wave [iv] is possible if Globex cant get above 1107ES, and pushes lower throughout the European session

So i am still Bullish and treating this as a 4th wave pullback but because of the 2 days decline, i am not so aggressive as i was, as the picture has changed and i need to adapt to that, so a 5th wave is still the expectation based on the current price work

Of course if this suddenly pukes, then that idea is off the table then we need to get short and sell the market, but i am willing to give it some room here, as use 1107ES as the s/t Bull/Bear line

XLF Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-29T14:36:00.006+07:00

I have had to adjust the labelling degrees in line with the main markets simply because my original ideas was a little too Bullish for the decline over the last 2 days, so now suspect this is still a 4th wave but of a larger degree

So what the heck does that mean???

In plain simple English to a non Elliottician trader pls

It Means that i was looking for a few more gyrations on up/down/up, but the decline is too deep really to go with that idea, although its not technically busted, it looks and feels like a larger 4th wave, so the idea of seeing higher is still OK atm, (unless puking under the wave [i] high) but not so aggressive as i 1st though based off the initial structure to the move from the 20th Jul lows

The same applies across the US markets, the initial idea was Bullish based on the gyrations, however the decline is a little too deep to maintain that aggressive Bullish stance, so looking higher as long as the market can find some support and rally in that 5th wave

If we loose the lows of yesterday in the US markets, there is not much wiggle room on the downside, so the Bulls really do need to get it together, or the market is going to switch back to "sell the rally" mode again

I ain't got no issues switching one again to the Bear side if needed

Upon any 5th wave high here, we can start to look to get short as well, and finding a potential high, if this lacks any powerful upside to suggest a far more aggressive stance on the market

AAPL Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-29T13:46:00.003+07:00

Looks like it could be done and finished, so if you have access to selling this pair, it can be a great trade, i have a completed count, and it does look good, if the high is not in now,it could just need a touch higher, however if the NDX makes a new high but this pair fails, that could be a great clue to the fact that Equities are near to rolling over

So lets watch this stock if the NDX gets a bid today and rallies with the rest of the markets to see if it diverges against the main markets especially the NDX

USD/CAD Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-29T13:40:00.003+07:00

This push lower, the previous Bullish setup i showed, got busted as Equities pushed higher

Now if Equities have one more move higher, then i suspect this pair pushes lower in what now can be labelled wave [c] of a Bullish triangle

I have mentioned about being in a war, as we are sure in one with the holiday volumes, the tape it getting run ragged all over the place

But if my idea on finding a high up here for my preferred count of B of Y on the SPX (and then seeing under 1000SPX towards 950SPX)

Then this pair will need to find some support nearby and rally aggressively as Equities puke and reverse of the next high if a 5th wave is needed

However start to push lower under 1090SPX and this pair is going to rally higher and could already be in the wave [d]

Triangles huh!!!!

AUD/USD Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-29T13:11:00.003+07:00

Finally after weeks of choppy crap price work, we are starting to see some patterns develop and might even be able to get some trades going in the FX pairs

So far its countable as a 5 wave decline, so we have risk to 0.9068 (that's where its wrong), the idea is that a correction to that 5 wave decline is taking place, and should stop around the 50-618 retrace area, with resistance around the 0.9000 area a target before it should at least push lower in wave [c], if more Bearish then wave [iii]

But i like this setup as its text book Elliott, if a high can be found in between the fibbo range and around the 0.9000 area

Caution and to respect above the 786 area at 0.9033

AUD/JPY Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-29T13:07:00.005+07:00

So far bounced perfectly off the 1x1 area, and looking like it could develop into the start of an impulse, that is going to help the risk trade and should see a bid into the ES and push it higher

So as long as this pushes higher i suspect (with the USD/CAD pair pushing lower) that the ES will find a bid

What we had was a nasty "shakedown" for 2 days and the upside should push higher above 1107ES and onwards to new highs from 20/07

SPX Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-29T12:50:00.003+07:00

Sheesshhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Another day or torture like that and traders will be throwing themselves out the windows

2 days of it.

The decline is a bit too deeper for the lower degree wave 4 ideas, although the 3rd has some problems to it, the 2 day decline so far constituents looking to the gyrations as a larger 4th wave

My original idea was a bit more Bullish that what i am showing here, but the lack of buying power has forced the issue on the previous count to that of what i am now showing here

So this could still drop a bit lower towards the 1096SPX area and still be OK for a 4th wave from the 20/07 low, and the idea od wave [c] of B of [Y] is now starting to look a lot better than was first thought

So my preferred count is looking a lot better, so short term, i am still Bullish against this 4th wave idea, although i have had to adjust it to allow for a larger 4th wave, and still expecting a push higher in a 5th wave

If we start to really loose it under the 1095SPX then 1090SPX, the idea is going to look wrong and i am then going to get short and follow the tape lower and sell the rallies

The Bulls need to step it up, and stem the low grind lower (which is a tough tape and its not giving much in the way of clues)

Very near term Bears can look to sell under 1107ES if found to be resistance, I don't want to be short above 1107ES, and will look to get back in on the buy side above 1107ES

Near term, Bearish trades can use 1107ES now for guidance, we failed and struggles to maintain to get over that area yesterday, after being decent support its now come resistance

I suspect the new low to come if 1107ES failed, we got that, but the reaction of that new low was a little disappointing

Although the idea is far from busted, i think we need to allow it some room to prove itself

The Bulls need 1107ES as support, so i am using the # as the line in the sand

Bullish above, Bearish below 1107ES

Gold Short term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-28T18:37:00.003+07:00

So far working well, if anyone is short i would be cautious of a move above $1175

As this should be working lower as shown if this is to see those lower target

Wave [iii[ of [c] that will remain to the question, if a more Bearish move then wave [iii] if only part of a ABC correction off those truncation highs, then only wave [c]

There is the 200DMA a bit lower, and that was the overall idea as being a ABC correction and on the bounce we can then work out if a 4th wave bounce for a Bearish idea or the move seen is only a correction to a Bullish trend

So $1175 is a warning sign

ES Pit Session Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-28T18:14:00.003+07:00

Now that i finally got my live feed of the ES back i can start to post the ES pit session chart

Same idea some sort of 4th wave pullback and don't want to loose the 1101ES area, as that's going to start to look wrong and a bit too deep for a 4th wave pullback

This is essentially the SPX chart

AUD/JPY Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-28T17:37:00.003+07:00

Just a short term idea of a possible 1x1 and something that can aid on the ES decline as this pair does track generally the ES and is part of the whole "risk trade" the JPY crossesare very much part of the current move higher in risk and the Equity markets

So if only a 1x1 off the last high, its going to suggest a correction before a resumption to the trend higher and that should also see the ES get a bid, which is the idea that the ES is just tracking sideways before a push higher

Tale Of 2 Triangles

2010-07-28T16:47:00.004+07:00

The idea is that this is a 4th wave pullback, in the current trend, and what appears to be a triangle, however when the trade looks a bit over crowed and it looks too obvious, then the market has a way of pulling the floor underneath the most

In this case the options are still open, although strong above 1113ES will the suggest the next move has started

So the options are still that the triangle can be a b wave with a thrust lower under yesterdays lows around 1105ES ish then reverse higher

It could also be in a larger triangle and whilst many think its finished it wastes more time and expands before setting up higher

So bottom line i am still Bullish above 1101ES but want to see the market holds above 1103ES where if the pattern suggests i want to get in on any pullback here and look higher

I saw nothing yesterday to suggest getting Bearish this market

Update To The New Website

2010-07-28T16:23:00.001+07:00

An Update to the Website

I have actually bought licenses for the new site as the response was enough to warrant the effort
Presently it’s a template and I am getting it hosted, so I am trying to fit in the stuff I want to put on it so will arrange for sub-forums etc, and areas for different classes of markets

Ie Forex (with various pairs) US markets, European markets etc, a metals forum for Gold, Silver, platinum etc so traders have an area where they can post charts and trade ideas with other traders

Commodities, like Oil, Soybeans etc

Areas to discuss economics, (if that’s your thing) as I know a few like to have debates on this sort of thing

I have used the forum style template before and it works well,

Slowly I will be adding features, I want to try and get around to making some PDFs for educational purposes, as many have asked how you recognise pattern in real time

Or even the start of one, let’s face it what’s the point of a pattern after the pattern, as we want to be getting ahead so we can make $$ off the pattern/trade

Well i want to create a thread/forum so traders can try and get an understanding

Where i will show some educational aspects to Elliott and patterns, and how you would go about the patterns and to come up with the same sort of ideas as i do.

I am using an invision forum, where each member would have access via a password and user name so at some stage users will need to create an account

The site will have a chat room with history (although I have not checked it out yet as its still be hosted as I write) this is where most of the real time comments will be taking place

I.e. what the pit is doing maybe Goldman buying 1400 Spoos, or the locals stuck long etc

It’s also where I will be communicating the ideas I would post in the threads/forums

But I will be posting the main parts of the chat room in perhaps a daily thread so members that don’t have access to the chat room etc can keep up to date that way and just long on to the site

There are a few things I want to do, so it’s going to be improved as time goes on

But once it’s up and I have created the minimum I want to get it going then I will be moving away from Blogspot

There is going to be teething issues, I am sure of it, but I have a local web guy here I can call who will sort out any issues I have and i will have a suggestion area where the members can post ideas to help build on the site to help it better for them

Other areas where you can get free software for charts etc, so you guys keep your costs down on charting software

I was a moderator of a previous forum, and one that I thought was the best out there (sadly the owner died RIP) so I know the sort of standard I would want it to be like, and the members had a big part of the say as to how the site improved and went forward

Things like twitter can be used if that helps others

Or if you can’t make it into the chat room (maybe your work has firewall issues) then I can have a daily thread where I posted the main items of the day and ideas etc

I can post charts and ideas in each forums like the ES & gold etc ,then you would check the Daily thread for that day and the link would take you to the individual market etc or you just check the forums depending on which markets you prefer

The idea is that when your preferred market is in chop land that you also can start looking to other markets for ideas and not be bogged down by a sideways choppy market

There are ways for others to keep in touch without actually entering the chat room, although if you do have access its far easier to keep in the loop, I want the history feature so others can get up to date quickly

So the site I hope should be up within a week or two
If you have any suggestions you can post them in the chatroll or email me them

Presently as it’s a teething process so there is going to be no charge, but at some stage, there is going to be a charge, as you would be gaining access to my work and any other features that are via the site,

I am going to start off with a core element of charts/markets, and if the need arises I will add other markets depending on the suggestions from others, if there is a need for it, I will try and incorporate it, just like I am unlikely to post charts on markets that most don’t trade

Although I could have an area for special opportunities so if you’re looking for ideas, then can search that area, as long as you have access to those markets anything is trade able

So you will get a trial period to find out if the site will be of value to your trading, like all things in life, if you don’t like it, you don’t pay for it

So anyone is welcome to join free in the initial trial period, potentially a month or so.

I will not tolerate any abusive posting or spam merchants

I want serious traders that are interested in joining, if you have an agenda, please don't join up as you will be banned, i am not going to have any repeat of the previous issues i had

This site is for traders that want to see my work and come together as a community to trade ideas to make successful trades,

NOT a bitching club, you can take that to the Yahoo boards

I know that things can get a bit heated at times, in a debate, but as long as both parties show respect, i don't mind that.

I promise you this , anyone found to be causing trouble will be banned.

YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED

SPX Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-28T15:14:00.003+07:00

The gyrations yesterday were classic of a 4th wave

The idea as i expressed in the chatroll was to waste the day away in a 4th wave

Well that's exactly what we go so far, so i am Bullish above 1103ES, there may be a minor breach of yesterdays low, but overall look higher against 1103ES

The market is actually setup to open with a gap up as the close can be wave e of a triangle and any gap up would be the 5th wave

The alt is that the triangle is a b wave or some form of correction and thrust a bit lower under yesterdays low and then reverse so 1103-7ES then reverse higher

My bias is still to the upside and i am Bullish this market above 1103ES i really don't want to see 1101ES to maintain the Bullish bias

So far its looks and feel like a 4th wave

Of what degree???? i think its a 4 of 3

Anyhow the near term trade is look to buy any pullbacks above 1103ES but a nudge blow 1107ES could be seen and is not Bearish, its a buying opp as long as nothing silly like impulsive price action

E-signal

2010-07-28T13:53:00.003+07:00

I have had to change accounts again, so i can get the fee waiver off my broker, so waiting on E-signal to create new account

So i dont have access for about another hour or so, but hopefully be able to post in a while

EUR/USD Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-28T09:14:00.003+07:00

Its been a tough month for FX setup, i am more that happy to stick with the ES atm,

This pair has been far from easy, as the corrections has been small and no really letting up on the corrective idea bounce

The target zone of 131-132 still is in the frame, but the near term price work is still lacking a bit of clarity, but i have some labelling which could help sort out the near term chop

So i am looking higher against 12952 in wave C of [Y], it a breach of that area i will then have to look again, but the FX markets due to the Summer months are not really setting up a lot to work with and its been a struggle to find some convincing trade setups, hence why i have turned my focus on to the ES, as that is far clearer to work with

Gold Short term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-27T22:08:00.003+07:00

Resistance an now be moved down to $1186.30 in what should now be a "3rd of a 3rd" of [c]/[iii]

It seems that we are seeing a flight out of safety into risk

EUR/USD Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-27T10:52:00.006+07:00

Which ever way i look at this pair, it just keeps pointing to that same target zone 131-132

There is a number of clusters of Fibonacci and structure resistance at that area, and whilst there are 2 ways to count, they still point to that area

AUD/USD Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-27T09:33:00.004+07:00

No Elliott Counts, just some Fibonacci based target projections, based of the overall structure being a 3 wave move

So currently i have a target range of between 0.9080-0.9180

Now the advance is likely to be a WXY correction, its been a tough move to follow, like some of the other FX pairs i follow, the summer months have made trading FX difficult with the chop

But looking at a larger picture view i think we can start to look for signs of this current advance faltering around that area,

So overall i think, look higher against 0.8900

SPX Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-27T08:15:00.007+07:00

If Tuesday continues on from yesterday, and the buyers pick up from where they left off , i am using this count to continue to look higher

As long as the pullbacks are corrective abc looking moves (3 wave small declines) then its a buyers market

So you can choose to accept that, or you can get run over, the Bears that are fighting the rally are simply getting run over, as they should be, as they ain't showing no respect for the buyers

I am not hearing the sellers at all, so continue to remain Bullish in this market

If i see an impulsive downside reversal or something that is out of character to what i have seen so far ie a move more that 10 handles on any decline, then i look again

This count has the market in the heart of a "3rd of 3rd" and one that has far higher prices in store for it

So at this current juncture, with the lack of selling, i remain Bullish until proven wrong or the market is to show signs of reversing the current trend

Edit - I should say with Goldman buying at least 1500 yesterday, there was a very low probability that the market was going lower, so all those Bears that are praying for the reversal, when the "Boyz" are buying in size, you want to pay attention, or like wanna be top tickers do, they get run over like good little sheeple

Its your call

Do you want to be on the right side and make $$$$ or on the wrong side like most EWI bloggerettes are atm, looking for wave 3 crashes to 400 DOW, and getting squeezed

Gold Short term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-26T11:19:00.003+07:00

the advance has been very choppy and one that suggests being that of a correction, so still working the Black count and that the last swing high is now key resistance at $1203.90

So looking lower against that level, if it pushes back above, then the key resistance will be back to $1217.40, but ideally its now setting up for a "3rd of 3rd" and should see an impulsive decline

The red alt count is still possible, but that would really need to see some upside from here, so far that is lacking and favours the black count atm

EUR/USD Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-26T10:47:00.005+07:00

The move down off the highs can be counted a few ways, and i don't really have a high confidence setup to show here

It can be counted in both ways, it looks more like a correction, but just countable as an impulse wave

So like the other US$ related pairs i don't really have any high confidence setup to show, apart from the USD/CAD pair

I am looking at some of the exotics for any ideas as if the Major pairs are not showing confidence setups then i think we should turn to some of the exotics if they show some setups that warrant investigation

FTSE Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-26T08:17:00.003+07:00

The lows made on 7/20 can be counted a few ways, i really want to try and keep this count aligned with the US markets, as they essentially move together

After reviewing the US markets, if the current advance is wave [c], then i also suspect that the FTSE is nearing a conclusion to the current rally

Short term all that we need to be focusing in on is what occurs after the advance from the 07/20

As you can see on a new high, it should be virtually finished as a 5 wave rally

How any correction declines will be a key going forward as like the US potential, there is a Bullish 12,12 count that can be setting up, and one that suggests like the US markets far higher in prices

So if any decline is choppy on any downside and holds up above 5200-5160 (that's good support), then if only corrective my feeling is that like the US (which should also be choppy and weak on any correction) its setting up for a more aggressive upside move

Under 5160 helps the Bears case and really need to see the US markets reverse in tandem and see those puke and have impulsive structure to the downside to confirm that a reversal would mark an important high, or this market has far higher to go

S0 you only need to focus on what has happened from those 07/20 lows, if a corrective decline that holds up above 5160-5200, and the US markets are in a choppy decline, then chances are its setting up for a more aggressive upside move and one that the Bears need to respect

The FTSE should take its lead from the US markets

I noticed Copper also got a nice move to the upside last week, which will also help the miners in the FTSE

Overall i do this that if an decline is shallow and weak, there is the potential for far higher prices and even a new yearly high if the setup is as aggressive as i think it could

But also lets keep an eye on the 1st s.t setup around 1110-1120SPX for clues, if any decline is corrective and shallow on the US markets i am virtually certain its going to be the same on the FTSE

FX & Other Charts

2010-07-25T19:29:00.000+07:00

I will post the other stuff i want to over the next 12-18 hours, the Metals really are the same idea, i will post the FTSE and i want to wait of a few FX pairs, like the EUR/USD & GBP/USD & AUD/USD as there is really nothing clear enough to warrant a high confidence counts in much of the FX pairs, other than the USD/CAD pairs

I may have a look at some of the exotics to try and come up with some ideas, but as for the Majors i don't really have a lot of confidence in them atm, there just seems a lot of whipsaw and chop and not really good setup to count let alone trade

TNX Keeping It Simple

2010-07-25T19:15:00.003+07:00

Simple trend line analysis, lets see if this offer some resistance
If it reversed at this t/l this its liking equities will reverse, if however it pushes higher, that will likely confirm that Equities and yields will breakout to the upside

SPX Keeping It Simple

2010-07-25T19:07:00.003+07:00

Looking at the near term gyrations i think we need a bit higher at least for the wave [c] of B idea, so the 1st idea is that we find a reversal in this target zone

If and decline that reverses from this target zone is weak and not what we should expect from an important top, then its time to get long, so if corrective sloppy downside and nothing that resembles impulsive price work then we need to be looking to get long as the market is most likely settings up for higher prices

The RSI is something to be watching, as its right at resistance, a "fake out" on the RSI is ok if the markets shows an impulsive reversal signature

TYX Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-25T18:55:00.002+07:00

Yields deffo moved on Friday, and potentially a clue to the rally being the real deal, if those yields carry on higher, that's an indication of the "risk trade" kicking back in and traders feeling good about buying risk and selling Bonds and the 10 yr note

So far its a 5 wave decline, so watching for clues to see if its only going to be a corrective bounce, as that would suggest that Equities are near to a reversal as opposed to a larger move to the upside

If however yields pop far higher than the resistance cluster, that's going to see Equities being bought and a bad sign for Bearish traders

SPX Ideas

2010-07-25T09:02:00.004+07:00

One idea i have been contemplating is that if the market exceeds 1131.90SPX, the only option the Bears have is an expanded flat, and that from the 01/07 (DOW was 03/07) lows its a wave [c] of a larger wave 2

Now the question will remain, if its only a 3 up ie [a] [b] [c] from those 01/07 lows

How can you label it as a [c] of 2 when you need 5 waves for a C wave

So if its a 3 wave structure into approx 1140-60SPX then its going be corrective, no doubt the Bears will be forcing BS labels if it is a 3 wave structure, it could be labelled as wave [c] of a potential running triangle

Simply put you cant keep labelling 3 wave moves as 5 wave moves just so it fits your Bias of you looking for a crash

That is what gives Elliott a bad name, hence why a lot of traders actually think Elliott is a waste of time

Elliott is an extremely useful tool IF used if the right hands

The issue i have always had is the so called "gurus" the ones that wrote the book, are always looking for crashes and seem to have an agenda looking at both sides and actually forcing 3 wave moves as 5s

No doubt this week they have had to back track that BS nested Bear count again

Elliott is as simple as you want to make it, if you understand the rules and the look of the correct pattern, then its a very valuable tool

If however you are trying to curve fit an agenda with obvious 3 wave moves into 5 wave moves, you are going to get yourself into trouble

Elliott is not all i use, i use other techniques, but its a method i do use, and i KNOW how to correctly label a chart

USD/CAD Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-25T08:52:00.003+07:00

This version of the triangle suggests far lower to come and that its already in the thrust from the triangle

Key resistance is at 1.0427, as long as that holds any upside the trend is down and Equities will be holding support, it also implies that its started it most biggest portion of the move and inside a "3rd of 3rd" already hence why you can also make a very BULLISH case for Equities, as come Monday if Equities are already in a "3rd of 3rd" you DON'T want to be selling the ES

And its bye bye Bears

As long as this pair is pointing lower then Equities will get a bid, both these patterns are key to deciding which path the ES/Equities are going to take

Will it be the Red pill or the Blue pill?????

USD/CAD Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-25T08:37:00.003+07:00

If Equities are setting up for a reversal, then this pair needs to find a low and pretty fast, it needs some minor gyrations of c of [e] but into the 1.0300/20 area needs to find some support and rally out of the blocks and be aggressive as well

If this pair cant find some strength, it will likely confirm that Equities are in a much more Bullish stance, and then we need to be getting long the ES and my thoughts are that we are going much much higher in Equities and this pair pukes and most likely goes downs for new yearly lows

If that were to happen i do think the Equities are more likely going to test and make new yearly highs, but regardless of that, we just need to make sure we are on the right side of the trade up or down in both this pair and Equities as there is a going to be a very profitable trade

DZZ Short Term Elliott Wave Count ( 2 X Short Gold)

2010-07-24T19:49:00.005+07:00

With a lower move still suspected in gold, this is one way to play the downside, so far we have some nice text book Elliott to count, and if you have access to the US markets, i think this can be a very low risk trade (i think you could also trade this via a spread bet or CFD if your in the UK see your broker or Spread bet company)

If the small degree [ii] is not in at $11.42, a bit lower needed, but as long as Critical support is not breached at $11.15 (that's the stop) then this can still set up for a move higher

So far its reversed of its 618 retrace, so the wave [ii] could be in, if Gold pukes in Sundays/Monday session, then this should already be in wave [iii] of larger [iii]/[c]

Russell 2000 Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-24T19:01:00.003+07:00

I think the Russell has some of the better structure and one that i think we can use, going back to the ideas of seeing a bit higher in the ES/SPX towards the 1110-1120SPX area, i think looking at this market i can make a very sound case for for more upside

Which agrees with the idea of seeing that little bit higher to finish off wave [c] in the SPX for wave B

As i have said i could be wrong about the reversal from this area and we area bout to start an aggressive rally, one that is going to see new yearly highs, its not preferred count but its one i will embrace

But 1st we need to get over the near term setup of a 1x1 on this market, and some smaller gyrations are needed to finish that

So From Sundays Globex open i am still looking higher and we can use the 94/7 ES area in Globex to look to buy a pullback

Mutual Monday we can see the finishing touched to the current advance and that can see another 12-15 handles on the ES/SPX towards its 200DMA

DOW Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-24T18:04:00.004+07:00

I have adjusted the labelling to show the preferred way i think it should be counted for wave [c] (this aligns with the SPX) and that from the 03/07 lows a [a][b][c] advance is near finished and one that should if i am correct see new lows under 03/07 and the sees the my original target of 950SPX and FTSE 4500

So i will go with this idea into next week and looking for the reversal in the USD/CAD pair to support the idea of a reversal, if it don't come and any selling is corrective looking, and the USD/CAD pair is not showing impulsive upside, then i switch to the more aggressive Bullish count and get long where far higher prices are expected, and will be a trend setting move that should last many weeks

SPX Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-24T16:16:00.004+07:00

I mentioned that the DOW is really the only one market, well the NYSE as well, supports a potential 5 wave impulse off the 20/7 lows, however the SPX and NDX don't support that idea

Which makes me think if the upside does not show aggression to confirm a wave 3 style count to support the Bullish case, then maybe that my preferred idea of seeing 1110/20SPX and then completely reversing and trapping loads of loads Bulls and Bears (they all want to get long now) a like and heading back under the 03/07 lows

That is actually my preferred count after looking at many markets i am going to go out on a limb and suggest to stick with the B of [Y] count ie 1110/20SPX

The USD/CAD pair is to find a low and reverse hard to the upside

Now if i am wrong and we don't see that impulsive move lower, then i will be getting long on a corrective pullback once i can confirm that a 3rd wave to the upside is really kicking in

So near term i think still more upside but not as aggressive as i have shown on the 3rd wave Bullish ideas

I still like that USD/CAD triangle setup and finds a low around 1.0300/20 and rallies hard

I like the idea of a nasty Bull trap up here

I have showed you the Bullish ideas just so you know that if you saw relentless buying and corrective choppy declines like what we saw in Feb-Apr, we already have a count to clarify that sort of buying pressure

After looking at my idea that we are still in wave [c] of B of [Y] as my preferred count and this is a nasty Bull trap, i kinda like this set up now

So i will need to see an aggressive reversal a bit higher, and back under 85ES then under the 68/70ES, no messing around here big selling and confirmation via the pit

If we only drop lower in corrective choppy moves and within the 10 handle rule (+/- 2 handles) then i am getting long as the market is likely in a Bullish setup and going far higher

So looking at the very near term gyrations i still cant count a 5 wave advance for wave [c] off the 20/07 lows i still feel it needs a bit higher and towards the 200DMA

Where its going to fail and confirm a sharp reversal thus putting in a top for wave B of [Y] and head on lower back under 1000SPX

THIS IS MY PREFERRED COUNT

Just so there is no confusion, if however i don't get to see the reversal and impulsive downside, i am moving on the the Bullish 3rd wave idea

We will need to see confirmation from the USD/CAD pair

This is a nasty trap here, and if i am correct you are going to see a nasty reversal, it wont take much though to confirm if its wrong, as its either going to work or it wont after wave [c] has finished, if from Monday there is a huge gap up and one that suggests a "3rd of 3rd" then all bets are off, and we know we need to get long

SPX Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-24T15:38:00.005+07:00

You want a way that is going to screw up both Bears and Bulls???

You remember i showed the flat idea a few days back, well because the DOW is the only market with the cleanest count, the NDX and SPX really only support a large move higher or this wave [b] idea

But if you actually look at the structure on a 60 min chart, it has the right look for a "3" so whilst it might be counted as a "5" is works better as a "3"

It only counts best as a 5 from the 07/20 lows, on the DOW but the NDX and SPX has overlap

So if this is a 3 wave advance from 07/20 lows, then you can see a complete reversal for a wave [c] of an expanded flat

That is going to really screw up the Bullish traders and the Bears will also think that their count is working, only to see it rally higher after completion of the flat

How do we know between the Bullish and Bearish counts???

Price, that is all you need, if corrective and within the 10 handle rule, chances are its more Bullish that Bearish

If we see it puke, from next week, we have this count, and the other count that has a top in place for wave B of [Y]

So there is the Bullish count that says an important low in place, and about to start a variation of a 3rd wave, Wednesdays low holds fast and never gets violated, but under 68/70ES is a clue that the Bullish case is wrong

If we start to see impulsive downside, we are in either this count and sees back under 1057SPX, or we have started the C of [Y] count or something even far more Bearish

So the keys areas from Monday is 80/5ES above here helps the Bullish case and aggressive upside as long as choppy/corrective downside, below 68/70ES helps the Bear case and impulsive price action needed where we should see a move at least under 1057SPX or lower

Easy huh!!!!

DOW Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-24T15:23:00.004+07:00

If you wanted to take a really aggressive approach to the DOW Bullish count, you can count it and make a very valid case for that this market has entered a "3rd of 3rd" and about to get really aggressive

So come Monday its back to Mutual Monday buying and we open up with a decent gap up, one about 6-8 handle plus and never look back

As long as key support holds, the trend will remain up

So whatever Bias you choose, all you need to know is where its wrong as the rest will take care of itself, i do like the Bullish side here, as most don't think that there is much upside left, and the sentiment is extremely Bearish still and traders wont believe a rally can kick in here, and the Bears that keep fading it will get run over as per the Feb-Apr 2010 rally

NDX Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-24T14:59:00.003+07:00

The NDX offers a slightly more Bullish outlook and one that says that a big gap up on Monday and about the start a "3rd of 3rd" and see big buyers step up to the plate

You could suggest that is looks like a wedge for a wave [c] of the Bear count, now it does have a wedgy look, but that can be blown away come Monday for a large gap up in what will be the "point of recognition" in a 3rd wave, also the internals of an Ending Diagonal don't fit as there isn't much of abc corrections for the structure on an Ending Diagonal, unless you are about to force count, i would only consider that is this market puked from monday and reversed strongly

But this market is suggesting more aggressive Bullish stance if Globex gaps up on Monday

Key Support at 1846.48 is needed to keep this alive

It will leave us in no doubt about it, a 10-15 handle gap up in Globex will be needed

DOW Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-24T13:49:00.004+07:00

BEAR COUNT:

Here is the other side of the trade and one that will need to see the triangle on the USD/CAD pair kick in and be very aggressive on the upside, failure to see that turn around the 1.0300/20 area is not going to look that hot for this count

This essentially implies that either then high is on or will be on a small gap up on Monday then a hard reversal to the downside

How will you know which count???

Well a correction will be choppy and corrective and we wont be hearing the sellers in the pit, it will probably just be the locals pushing lower for some weak longs and be a 3 wave looking move

You wont get to see a 5 wave impulse and the decline will be shallow, my guess around the 80/85ES area holds any downside

But overall a 3 wave look to it and no selling in size just a light pullback

HOWEVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If we see a 5 wave impulse that breaks lower and we get some size sellers in the pit and put in a reversal Daily candle (shooting star etc)

Then we have the start of what can be the C of [Y] move to under the 07/03 lows and on its way to break the 1000SPX area and see towards the 950SPX mark

So Bears and Bulls need to pay close attention to any decline and then confirm/negate which move

To remain Bullish on the aggressive 12,12 count, we should not be seeing a move that is impulsive in nature on any downside from here, we would need to see small corrections, and should not really be testing the 80ES area, but generally not having that impulsive puke look to it

If we see a corrective looking sloppy,choppy decline, one around 10-15 handles, then we are likely setting up for aggressive upside, where it should then be a "3rd of 3rd" that is going to run over any shorts left in this markets

Trust me on this:

YOU DO NOT WANT TO BE SHORT IF A STRONG 3RD WAVE TO THE UPSIDE IS SETTING UP

You are going to be in a world of pain

So lets watch the USD/CAD pair for clues next week to see if this count or the more Bullish count is working

The one thing that this could has going so for it, is the negative divergence, however if a "3rd of 3rd" is setting up then that divergence will be invalidated as aggressive buying will see the RSI push far higher and kill off that negative divergence, but atm it has the right RSI "look"

DOW Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-24T12:51:00.005+07:00

BULL COUNT:

I am using the DOW to show the waves, as they are a little clearer

This is the Bull case and one that the Bears better pay close attention to

Overall i was Bullish up until a move above 1100SPX,

We got that

I have showed you the USD/CAD setup for an aggressive move higher that would almost certainly see the ES puke and take with it Equities far lower, so the Bulls have that to deal with

However if the USD/CAD starts to puke, then bye bye Bears, you had your chance and my silent Bullish count that not many, i suspect have caught on to, takes over then we need to get aggressive long and ride this up to new yearly highs

YES!!! NEW YEARLY HIGHS

I cant tell you how Bullish i will be once i can confirm this count, i am going to be a raving Bull with horns sticking out everywhere, and looking to run over all the Bears as the market just pushes on aggressively higher

Think Feb-April 2010, no let up for the Bears and just consistent buying all the way above 1220SPX

However, i am not exactly putting on the party hat quite yet as i will show you in the next post

There is my other count that we end [c] of B of [Y] about now and fail to get above the 200DMA on the SPX

But make no mistake this is a VERY BULLISH setup and if your Bearish you better walk away from the markets or simply put, you ain't going have much of an account left by the time this finishes with you, take my advice, it this count gets confirmed and you are Bearish and simply cant let go of your bias, that's OK but, WALK AWAY , go on holiday come back in a few weeks

Think i am joking????

Anyone that knows me well enough, knows that i love the short side a little more than i love the long side, its quicker to make $$$

But if i see an occasion to get long and i see virtually perfect wave structure, then i ain't going to pass on an occasion like this

Back in Feb we come off what i thought was a 5 wave decline in many markets from the Jan highs (it looked better on the FTSE and DAX, so i thought trend change), and starting from early Feb lows, it looked and felt like a choppy start to what i thought at the time was a correction to the main trend so i wasn't looking to buy into that move due to the overall corrective look

Of course as we know that turned out to be a red herring and once i worked it out and price pushed above the 618 retrace area, i knew then we had to get long as the structure took on the price structure of an aggressive 3rd wave that never stopped all the way through March into April 2010

This time you have some superb wave structure to work with hence why if needed i am going to get VERY BULLISH and buying with both hands

I don't care about the news or if the world is crashing (ps get away from Zerohedge in the trading hours, as it will tarnish you to have a perma Bear bias) i only care about what price is telling me

So far i see the potential here for a Feb-April style move and one that is going to completely destroy the Bears

A move that the Bears that are following that wave 3 to hell count are going to wish they never even heard the word P3 let alone think that a crash is around the corner

Yeah i still read that stuff on the blogs, amazing that these guys actually trade this market, cause they sure cant of traded what i just traded, i found the last 2 weeks some of the easiest trading i have had in a long time, and found it refreshing that when i needed it most, i got my mojo back, i am on fire, and looking to make the most of it,

Simply put i was on the right side of the last 2 weeks because i was actually following what price was doing, that was some of the easiest Elliott structure to work with, virtually perfect 5s on the upside and 3s on the downside, that ladies and gentlemen is simple Elliott Wave trading and the definition of a trend

Even if there was a P3, at this rate there ain't going to be any Bears left with any money to trade it

Decide if you want to paint pretty pictures, or do you want to trade text book Elliott and trade with the trend

PS - Indicators and volume are irrelevant as that never stopped the Feb-April 2010 rally, why would it this time???

The ONLY thing that pays is price

SPX Keeping It Simple

2010-07-24T12:48:00.002+07:00

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

It does make you wonder????

Doesn't it????

USD/CAD Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-23T16:04:00.003+07:00

The other side to the triangle is that this pair is about to really come under some downside and that will be Bullish for Equities

Key resistance at 1.0500 needs to remain for this count to remain valid

As we are aware now, Equities travel the reverse of this pair, so whatever triangle setup this pair is about to do we need to be doing the opposite on the ES/Equities

USD/CAD Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-23T15:12:00.003+07:00

So going on from that idea i posted, we can make the case that this is in wave [e] now into the 1.0300-20 target area

Now there is a 1x1 that is just below the "technical" break down area

I say technical as an intraday break does make the pattern broken

However!!!!!!!!!!!!

Not a lot of Elliotticians know that Elliotts work was done on line charts and if you were to see a tiniest a breaches but it reversed sharply and really grabbed hold and rallies hard, then we can use the setup

As i have allowed these sort of momentum spikes that reverse hard and see some greats setup where they have for a brief time pipped technical levels only to see them correctly work out the way you think, if it acts like i am suggesting and behaves like a triangle and the thrust is obvious then we treat it like i am showing

So this suggests a complete reversal in Equities and is a Bull trap and this is setting up for aggressive upside,

But if this pair continues to puke lower and does not get the reversal, you can forget selling the ES/Equities and they are on a mission for higher prices

USD/CAD Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-23T14:49:00.005+07:00

Here is the idea that compliments the SPX reversing hard in wave C of [Y]

This is setting up for an aggressive move higher and near the point where it needs to reverse to keep this alive

Now as the SPX enters above 1110SPX and finishes wave [c] of B of [Y] then reverses lower hard and impulsive, this will reverse and get some traction to the upside

So we can watch this in case this is setting up

Under the red line suggests higher prices for Equities and as long as this keep puking keep buying the ES

However as i have pointed out here there can be a nasty trap setting up for the Bulls and although i am Bullish i am until i see the B of [Y] finish, from there i can work out if pukes under 68/70ES and gets aggressive on the downside to confirm that wave C of [Y] has started towards 950SPX etc

Or we are in a far more Bullish wave count on the SPX and that will see this pair crack far lower

We have good support at 1.0310/20 and that's the area if this count is going to work i suspect it going to reverse from

The Red line is at 1.0284 So if your feeling brave and price enters into the 1.0310/20 area, you have risk to 1.0284

So that's 30 pip risk to potentially 700 pip gain

Errrrrr no brainer i think

VIX

2010-07-23T13:49:00.003+07:00

Then we come on to something that was really strange, how come the VIX just stood there???

I mean get a big move on the markets yet no big red candle

Well is this and bonds telling us that the rally is near exhaustion and about to puke, as traders are not buying into the rally??

The evidence with the VIX, Bond Yields, the Daily RSI, the 200DMA, the fractals length targets etc

Do make a good case that we can be near the end to wave B of [Y] and puke lower so we hit resistance in many areas and the buyers don't finish the job they started and bulk at buying anymore and get out at the 200DMA and run to safety

Hence that's the ingredients for wave C of [Y] to start

I like it ;-) lets get under 68/70ES 1st after putting in a reversal above at 1110SPX ish

Yields Vs Equities

2010-07-23T13:20:00.005+07:00

Well finally a bit of action in the yields to confirm the move, although i am not exactly impressed with the move, if more aggressive upside in Equities then yields need to confirm that to make the case more convincing

So the idea that we find a high up at these levels does sound a bit convincing if Bonds are not going to deliver and traders are not convinced about the Equity rally

Bonds need to rally here to help the Bullish case gets some legs

If they are weak like we have seen, i like the idea that i showed in the last post and [c] of B of [Y] is near and we are about to reverse hard to the downside

However get above that RSI resistance on the Daily SPX chart, then above those fractals and the 200DMA and the wave structure starts to show a series of 1s & 2s and its open season on the Bears

We are going far higher i expect Bond yields to rally with any aggressive upside in Equities

We do have a lot of resistance above on the SPX, the Bulls have got above the 50DMA, now they need to deliver on the 200DMA and really show their authority here

I have a working count that says the top is near to [c] of B of [Y] and we reverse hard

That's the count i have been looking to trade for weeks, now if the market don't deliver and reverse hard in wave C of [Y] under 68/70ES for the 1st clue

The we have a far far more Bullish setup and one that should be a trend move for weeks

Then we get long and all go an holiday come back in the end of August and collect our $1000s lol

But on a serious note there is a count here that says reversal so the Bears have a got a shot here as the end to B of [Y] and head lower below 1000SPX, this has been been my favoured count, we almost there

SPX Keeping It Simple

2010-07-23T13:12:00.003+07:00

So the idea of seeing a reversal a bit higher looks good as the end to B of [Y]

Now the odds to stack up well for a reverse in this target area

1) We have a flattening 200DMA and presently at 1113.17

2) we have 2 prior fractals to work with on the previous rally advances

3) we have a good potential Elliott Count (if i can make out 5 waves for wave [c])

4) the RSI is coming back to test the prior peak and is resistance

So this is the near term idea, if we can confirm that its wave [c] into the 1110SPX ish area and not something more Bullish

A push above the trend line will likely bring in the Bulls as its seen as a technical breakout, although there is a nasty trap that can be setting up here and is my preferred count

Then i get my Bear suit back on and the Bulls that buy up here are the Bag holders

SPX Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-23T12:33:00.004+07:00

So this is the idea i originally like as in wave [c] of B of [Y]

There needs to be at least a 5 wave structure that is countable off those 07/20 lows to make this count viable, or if we start to see a series on 1s & 2s then we have a far more aggressive move on our hands

The FTSE will be in a far more aggressive move and i suspect the other European markets will rally as well

But this is the 1st idea and is the operative count IF i can see a 5 wave move here as it agrees with the FTSE atm

If i start to see a pullback that is corrective but no 5 wave advance, then i suspect any decline is a small degree wave 2 and we are setting up for upside

You need to pay attention to that as you really really really don't want to be short a strong 3rd wave

Same deal only under 68/70ES will i even consider the Bear case until then i have a strong upside bias at least until i see this count finish or even better one of the more aggressive Bullish counts

You can either choose to accept price action and join me and lets trade and own this market (i think we have been doing well of late)

Or you can fight what price is telling us and loose $$$$

Its your call, i cant guarantee you anything, only show you the odds trade that i am looking at and most importantly where its wrong

If i am wrong i will get out and look at other ideas, the key is to get out quickly and NOT sit there praying for the market to reverse so you can get out of that loosing trade

SPX Long term Elliot Wave Count

2010-07-23T12:15:00.003+07:00

This is the silent idea i 1st showed a few weeks back, so the same areas apply to remain Bullish against the 68/70ES and look to buy corrective pullbacks

I will try to hone down the internal gyrations so we can get better entry points OR if the market has other ideas and reverses sharply i will state that the idea is wrong and we need to get away from the Bullish idea if the market pukes under 68/70ES etc

But for now the ideas i am showing rely on the Bulls to push the market higher, imo there is still not enough bitching on the Bear blogs i want to see that, as like in April 2010 there was so much bitching going on it was a sign of a top that the Bears capitulated

Now we need to see that again and i don't think we are near that

The world is short here and i think we need to burn some more shorts so both Bullish ideas need Wednesdays low to hold

Its a struggle to label the [c] of B of [Y] nearly finished as like the FTSE idea, as it would be a smaller wave [c] but if a 5 wave advance is seen from the 07/20 lows then we can work it now as in wave iii of [c] now and look towards the 1110/20SPX

This is the 1st count that could see a reversal area, if the other more aggressive Bullish counts ie this one and the one in the last post shown in red, then we have far far higher to go

So until under 68/70ES the trend is up and buy pullbacks is my suggestion against the 68/70ES area

I am not even going to waste my time on the Bear counts until under 68ES

Decide if you want low risk trades and go with the trend or do you want to fight the trend and sell a potential strong rally and loose $$$

SPX Long term Elliot Wave Count

2010-07-23T11:44:00.004+07:00

So the nearest idea is that we are finishing wave [c] of B of [Y] and reverse hard, however the internal waves don't really support that atm, they really need to see a bit higher then a small pullback then pop higher

The other idea is that an aggressive wave [c] is kicking in and Wednesdays low at 1065.36SPX is part of a 12,12 and an aggressive Bullish move to the upside

So in simple terms all you need to be aware is this

The trend is UP against the lows made on Wednesday, no ifs or buts

So until that is taken out, i am Bullish and looking higher, however we can use 68/70ES for clues on any impulsive drop

So even if a hard reversal to the downside comes in here and we get stopped out etc, i will then look at the charts again and see if it can find a valid idea

But for now i am Bullish and just trying to work out of the FTSE idea of seeing 5 waves of [c] of B of [Y] is actually valid of do we have a more aggressive Bullish count as shown in red

Only under 68/70ES am i cautious about the long side until then look to buy any corrective pullback against that area, so we have an area where it looks wrong, so protective stops need to be in place, as nothing is a given in this market, but i think we could have the making of a good upside move, if so look to be a seller of the USD/CAD pair unless Wednedays low get taken out or we are below 68/70ES

FTSE Long Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-23T10:51:00.005+07:00

So if we work that as a 5 wave advance off the 7/2 lows it could be now considered wave [c] of B of [Y] and then reverse lower to a new low under 4800

This is the idea i was working and have been for a while and we are correcting in a WXY count off the April highs and seeing 4500 on the FTSE and 950SPX

I have mentioned these targets a few times in the chatroll

Now what if i ma wrong and an important low was in place at 7/2 lows

Well like the SPX i can make a very valid case and count that we did indeed finish a correction for a WXY and as i wrote about this a few weeks back on a SPX posting that this is the silent move that most wont know about until its too late

This is why i have remained Bullish to at least get that B of [Y] target and not remotely convinced about that horse crap Bear count

Yes this is me the PermaBear as i was getting labelled telling you that the nested 1s & 2s was complete crap

And now we find ourselves to be still on the right side of the market because we never counted 3 wave moves for 5 wave moves

I only showed you the Bear counts just so you know i know what the Bears are using, i also mentioned numerous times about the flaws and that anyone "actually" trading this market knew that that was just a bunch of letters

My original idea still stands, i like the B of [Y] could up here and then reverse nasty and trap loads of Bulls and then get the world all short looking for crashes only to see it reverse as it has finished the end to a WXY correction and we see that new low towards 4500 on the FTSE and 950 on the SPX

Now the silent move that i don't think many are talking note of is that the correction is over and done and we about the go up to new yearly highs (that will see the USD/CAD puke to new yearly lows)

And what we have started is an aggressive move that sees far higher in a larger 3rd wave now

Yeah a 3rd wave only its going in the wrong direction, someone better tell the shorts about that

Why was i so Bullish before, well simply this

No way do i believe that was a 5 wave decline of the April high, so all the guys that subscribe to that stuff given buy the "gurus" i hope you learnt a real lesson about listing to the message of the market

These guys don't trade the markets, they don't get to hear what i hear day in day out

Pretty pictures and letters don't mean nothing if your not making trades off them

If there was a valid Bear case i would have showed it and pushed it aggressively, as i have done in the past, i luvvvvvvvvvvvv the short side its quick to make $$$$

Simply put anyone that was pushing that Bear count was NOT trading the same market as i was, they cant possibly have done, as the internals never matched that nested 12 count

Furthermore, most have missed the upside that was on offer

If i saw a "proper" 5 wave decline, i would have been very cautious about the upside, but because all i saw and rightly so imo were 3 wave declines, it was all corrective

Bears see only 5s when there was 3 waves is a joke!!!!!

So i get labelled a Perma Bear when i see 5 waves, which is a decent structure to work with, yet because i haven't gone with the Bears on this occasion i probably get labelled a faux or Perma Bull by some readers

All i know is this, being on the right side on the market is all that matters, not some fancy Elliott count

If i need to go against the Bears again i will, just like i have gone against the Bulls and as we found out that count was not the correct count and its being proven and i hope that i saved many from NOT selling this market at the wrong time as i think we have traded these gyrations rather well

Those that forced 3 wave moves as 5s just because they were looking for crashes have been taken to the cleaners again

Those that listened to the market actually traded the right side of it, or at least NOT selling this market (with exception to intraday trades)

Now coming back to the present idea on the FTSE, we can be near to a 5 wave advance here to end the [c] of B of [Y] idea and seeing a new low under 4800

If the move lower is not aggressive and corrective looking and fails to take out the 7/20 lows Bears need to respect that

I still like the idea of shaking out the Bulls here and seeing 4500 on the FTSE,

The alt count is that we put in an important low and started a 12,12 VERY Bullish move higher, this is not my preferred count, but if the lows (where i marked [iv]) don't get taken out, then we have a very Bullish picture and whilst i wanted to see 4500 on the FTSE to end a correction of the April 2010 highs, it may be over

So i think we are near to the end to the current move and one that i wanted to see the SPX over 1099ES potentially 1110-20SPX to end B of [Y] and then reverse hard to the downside and trap loads of Bulls, where i would be expecting a move towards 950SPX

If the more aggressive Bullish count is working here, this will be like the Feb - Apr 2010 rally and no stopping it, and of course the Bears will be fighting it all the way to they loose their accounts

As soon as i see some Bearish ideas i will post them, and if i see the start of that C of [Y] move i will post it here as well, so we can get on the short side for potentially new lows to 950SPX and FTSE 4500

Make no mistake, if an important low is in place we are off to new yearly highs, its not my preferred count, but those lows made in the SPX and FTSE on 7/21 & 7/20 are important now as that keeps the 12,12 Bullish count alive

FTSE Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-23T10:31:00.002+07:00

From the last recent lows at 20th Jul it appears to be near end to a 5 wave advance, presently i have it in wave iii

I have labelled that low as wave [iv] and whilst it looks a bit outta whack with the wave [ii] it don't break no rules and i am struggling to find a corrective labelling that really allows for that decline in 20/7

If you notice the RSI is has the hallmark of a trend that seems to want to nearer a top as opposed to a solid uptrend, but as we need to follow price 1st, we appear to be wave iii off the 20/7 lows

The Blue lines are excellent S/R lines

I am far from a FTSE trader, i don't trade it, as i trade the ES (more FX now in European hours)

A few days back we were discussing the fact that we might have missed not getting i think it was 5313/17 for the FTSE and to be buying some SUK2

Well i think we might get out chance now lol

This potentially could be a Bullish 12,12 like the SPX, but i have an idea that the SPX could also be near my original target of around 1120SPX and a count that is near to completion

So whilst the move could be near finished on the FTSE, i think it still has a bit more upside to go as long as it don't overlap with the 5245

This atm looks to have the right signature for a 5th wave, so a few more gyrations and a potential sell setup looks on the horizon, if however its a far more Bullish move then any pullback will be weak and really wont come anywhere near the lows made on 20/7 at 5120

GBP/USD (cable) Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-22T23:12:00.004+07:00

The recent advance is starting to look like a 5 wave impulse, so working it as wave [c] of the larger wave [ii]/[b]

The recent gyrations have been tough but i do like the look of this count, so need a brief pop higher to complete 5 waves

Currently it looks like small 4th wave, so expecting a pop higher, although a slim chance of a small degree wave 2

SPX Ideas

2010-07-22T22:55:00.004+07:00

With 3 waves up from the 20th Jul lows, we either have a 12,1 and now going to correct lightly in a small degree wave 2

Or its a [b] wave and the 3 wave advance is a abc of the [b] wave for a flat, and then reverse hard for wave [c]

We can use the 70ish area for guidance, if strong and impulsive then chances are its in wave [c]

See i told you its a war

Staying on the right side of the patterns and numbers ain't easy but Elliott is rocking

USD/CAD Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-22T20:15:00.003+07:00

In rare instances of wave E of a triangle, it actually is a triangle within a triangle, there is no doubt that this is coiling in a tight range and until it breaks up or down, we are in a tight range that seems to be getting tighter

So i am watching this as well, Tuesdays high must not be busted to keep a triangle for wave [e] in tact, although wave [e] can technically stay valid until 1.0680

Figure 1-43

There are several real life examples of triangles in the charts in this course. As you will notice, most of the subwaves in a triangle are zigzags, but sometimes one of the subwaves (usually wave c) is more complex than the others and can take the shape of a regular or expanded flat or multiple zigzag. In rare cases, one of the sub-waves (usually wave e) is itself a triangle

SPX Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-22T17:27:00.005+07:00

With the Globex gap above 75ES this is looking to kill off the near term structure that yesterdays was potentially a 5 wave decline

So i am still looking above 1100SPX in what will now be a 3rd wave and should be an aggressive upside move today as long as this gap up holds and does not roll over,

If only just above yesterdays high,s that still leaves the Bears count open and potentially seeing a strong reversal and impulsive downside, lets be careful of any poke just above the 88ES area if getting long off a pullback here

I know some must be frustrated at the swings, that's what the market is good at, getting you on the wrong side

But we are above 66/8ES as long as that holds as support on any pullback the i am using this idea, or at least a move back above yesterdays highs

There is an open gap that would be good to fill but overall i am still looking at testing that 1100SPX area as B of [Y]

So use 66/8ES as the dividing line today, as Bullish above Bearish below

To remain Bullish i want to see a nasty short squeeze and hear the buyers int he pit to confirm, i don't want to see a reversal if this gap up hold as its around the 75/77ES atm, which is good for this count

EUR/USD Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-22T16:50:00.005+07:00

Well that idea never lasted long lol

So the other potentials are a 12,12 Bearish count, or part of a abc x abc count and a bit lower in a correction

Te difference in a 3rd wave being part of a 12,12 count it will be obvious because of the selling, a move above the [ii]/[b] makes it only 3 waves and that would be a simple abc decline

SPX Long term Elliot Wave Count

2010-07-22T13:58:00.003+07:00

This the other way to interpret the Bear case, and one that i think at least look better, but implies the same message that a BIG move lower is around the corner and a move towards 800SPX is likely

This is actually more Bearish than the previous count and a series of 1s and 2s

Now both are saying the same think, HUGE downside moves and fear and real hard selling as a 3rd wave of large degree takes hold and you are talking 2008 all over again

Well the VIX better wake up and indicate that traders are feeling the fear cause the ingredients still don't seem right for this count

But saying that, we are essentially coiling up for a big move breakout from this area, so one side is going to really get stuck holding the wrong side

As long as we are not stuck on the wrong side of the moves i don't care which way it wants to move

SPX Long term Elliot Wave Count

2010-07-22T13:45:00.004+07:00

OK just so none start labelling me a Perma-Bull and married to a count, here is the Bear count that i think most are following, ( i have been called Perma Bull and a Perma Bear so far lol)

Now its no secret i ain't in love with this count one bit, but IF price confirms this aggressive style count, then i will adopt it

I am not interested in being a hero and fighting tooth and nail over a count , if the market is setting up as this is suggesting a "3rd of a 3" we are essentially about to crash

Yes this count is telling you that a crash is around the corner in the next few days

How realistic????

Well that's gotta be the ugliest 12,12 count i have seen labelled, but hey, i wont fight price, if the markets are puking and this makes sense, then i wont fight it

But don't forget i also have a count that wants 950SPX as well

Anyhow for all you Bears here it is, the crappy looking count that i simply laugh at the way its counted, its got more flaws than broken glass

But i wont argue with price regardless of any Elliott Wave Count

We got lower levels that need to be taken out, once under then its open season on the Bulls, the USD/CAD should rally as well

If the Bullish alternative ideas are setting up, then we should be near to a reversal and one that will suck loads of short in and squeeze them till they never utter the word wave 3

Remember a 3rd wave especially one of this degree should be like Sept/Oct 2008

BASICALLY A CRASH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

AUD/USD Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-22T12:37:00.002+07:00

Its possible now that wave ii started for wave [c] so the prior swing highs now key resistance to maintain the view of seeing lower

VIX

2010-07-22T12:28:00.003+07:00

Finally a half decent move in the VIX, and it seems it wants to awaken from its slumber

The Bear case really needs to see the Fear and if a 3rd wave was around the corner then i expect to see the VIX go moon shot above its 20DMA and above the 30 area

That will help confirm fear and selling and a decent 90% down day would hurt either to really help the Bear case

Failure to get above the 20DMA is telling you that there is simply not the fear i would associate with a decline that matched a 3rd wave

Go back to Sept/Oct 2008, look at the VIX then, now thats a 3rd wave VIX!!!!!!

10 Year Note

2010-07-22T12:22:00.003+07:00

Its the same message on the 10 year note TNX, and the as long as yields are pushing lower then the likely hood that's going to add pressure to Equities as its showing that money is money back into safety

It does look near to a complete 5 wave decline, so when a bounce kick in i suspect that Equities will push higher as well

SPX Keeping It Simple

2010-07-22T12:11:00.003+07:00

Down one day down up the next, Down the next day, it really is a whipsaw fest

Now yesterday was a case of rejection at resistance at the 50DMA and the trend line, and find support at the 20DMA

Like the USD/CAD pair until a strong move here, this is in the land of whipsaw

The RSI continues to confirm the whipsaw and hovering above and below the 50 mark, so we don't have a trend yet just a load of whipsaw

USD/CAD Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-22T12:02:00.002+07:00

Near term we ain't gone anywhere other than a 618 bounce, so a point where the market need to decide just like on Equities, get on the right side of this pair and in Equities you should have a trade that makes good $$$$$

Get on the wrong side and a world on hurt

USD/CAD Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-22T11:58:00.002+07:00

Still continue to oscillate around those 20,50 & 200 DMAs until we get a break on a direction we ain't going no where but a load of whipsaw

Its just going sideways but with wild swings

USD/CAD Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-22T11:53:00.004+07:00

A tale of two triangles

So whilst Equities and this pair continues to whipsaw and take traders to the cleaners until you really bust away from the current areas on the those markets, we are in a war and its chopping up traders to bits

Only i am loving it as i have working patterns and numbers, this is where the hard work pays off as i am in " DA ZONE" atm and really in tune with both the ES and this pair, so not looking to cool off just yet ;-)

USD/CAD Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-22T11:45:00.003+07:00

Talk about whipsaw, i did say we were in a war, in both this pair and the ES/Equities, although its getting very near to a point where a choice needs to be made and one that i thin will offer a trade that will last a few weeks in a trend following move

So no real change from yesterdays idea, if wave [e] topped we need to be seeing far lower, and that well see the ES rallying

If this market wants to breakout of morph into a larger triangle, then we need to be getting short the ES

However we have the numbers to use on the ES, so as long as we are on the right side of the trend i really don't care which way it wants to move

Bull/Bear, i really ain't too fussed as long we stay on the right side of the trend and collect the coin in our accounts, its all good to me

Wave [e] is STILL valid until above 1.0680, so whilst it could pop out and put in a new marginal high above Tuesdays high and new low in the ES under Tuesdays low

If don't necessary mean its busted

They also could be a larger triangle, but above 1.0680 weakens this triangle setup and suggests the WXY count or the alt triangle count and that this could still be a thrust higher in wave C and the target would be towards the 1.10 area and that will pressure the ES/SPX towards 950SPX

GBP/USD (cable) Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-22T11:31:00.003+07:00

Looks like the recent wild swings yesterdays have finished and we can start to push lower, with the potential for a a reversal in the DX and EUR/USD pair, that is likely to pressure this pair and see it push lower in sync with the EUR/USD pair

As the strength in the DX is mostly off the back on the GBP/USD and EUR/USD pairs, so look lower against the wave [ii]/[b] highs at 15334

This pair really does not want to give up the 152 handle, and once its broken it should see a sharp decline

Near term a smaller bounce can be seen towards 15250, so risk can be kept to around that area and sell any choppy bounce that enters that target against the 15334 highs then i am expecting back under the 150 handle if the DX and EUR/USD have reversed i expect this pair to follow the EUR/USD pair lower

Bears need to bust this 152 handle support and the back test of the 16875 trend line

So any crappy bounce towards 15220-250 is a sell against the wave [ii]/[b] highs, then we could be setting up for a "3rd of 3rd"

EUR/USD Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-22T11:17:00.002+07:00

Well so much for looking to get short at 12930

It happens even when you have a good vibe about a current market, then you miss entry points

So whats this pair doing now???

Well if we have topped or at least started a correction, then i am looking at the structure like this, and that we could be near a small 4th wave bounce so chance to sell it against the wave [i]/[a] lows

Above there suggests potential abc decline, although any rally here could be a x wave and that you would have abc x then need another abc drop lower so whilst it would be a text book 5 wave decline it could still push lower in a double ZZ

Yields Vs Equities

2010-07-22T11:08:00.003+07:00

You can see that the prior rally in Equities on Tuesday, Bond yields never rallied as i posted, but after that small 5 wave rally on Tuesday

We were looking lower from the resistance cluster at 87/83ES, well 87ES was a direct hit, as as the US cash session opened up i explained that i wanted to see a abc decline here towards 70ES and that as long as under 83ES then 70ES was the target

Of course we have over run that a little, and potentially going to see lower towards Tuesdays low

The fact that it pushed lower makes no difference as we was short anyhow, and here is where its going to matter short term as i have explained in previous postings

We can use 68ES in Globex now as long as stays under that area, look lower and 55ES is a target

Yields Vs Equities

2010-07-22T10:58:00.003+07:00

I think Bulls do need to pay attention here

As someone is calling BS on the Equity rally

What is this chart telling us???

Well as risk gets sold ie Equities, risk currencies etc, traders flee into safety on US bonds/10 year note

Now as i mentioned a few times, that the yields need to rally WITH any Equity rally or the rally is likely a bluff and one that the "so called" smart money is not buying into

So with what looking like a 5 wave decline, the bounce may also coincide with a small bounce in Equities

From a Bullish point of view i don't like this one bit and i am very cautious about it and it does offer some good evidence to the Bearish case in Equities

However, i have seen this before last year where Bonds were curtailed as stock rose with Bonds just sitting there, buts its a clue to be used and one that atm seems to be working well

It deffo something i want to respect as if Bonds are not being sold so buyers can buy stocks, you have issues from the point of view that money is not entering the stocks markets and risk is not being bought to help stocks lift higher

AUD/USD Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-22T10:46:00.002+07:00

Looks like the reversal already started and in wave [c] now, so looking lower against 0.8793

Silver Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-22T10:39:00.003+07:00

One of the reasons i favour the black count over the red count in Gold, and a 3rd wave of [iii]/[c] to kick in now is that silver don't agree with the red Gold count as that would show overlap between waves 1&4

So i tend to think that this is a small degree wave 2 as part of a 3rd wave of [iii]/[c] so i am expecting lower, but as always price rules and what i want or expect don't always happen

So aggressive upside in both the metals needs to be respected short term.

Both Gold and Silver could briefly push a touch higher in the small degree wave 2, but the bounce should be weak here and then setup a big move lower, so whilst i have labelled the small wave 2 in place, it could see a tiny pop higher then it needs to get aggressive on the downside

Gold Short term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-22T10:26:00.004+07:00

So far its hit the target, so if the black count is to kick in and a 3rd of C wave is in progress, it needs to really start the moves lower now and show some real impulsive downside

The alt count in red suggests a larger bounce and one that would likely push above the previous 4th wave and possibly towards $1220

I am still looking lower, just that there is 2 ways to count it, the one stays a 3rd wave drop of wave [iii]/[c] or the other says bigger bounce towards $1220 for wave [ii]/[b] as shown in red and then reverses, strong aggressive upside above $1230 would be a warning sign for the Bears, although i am looking lower, i am not suggesting any type of crash, just a short term trade towards or below the 200DMA as i explained in prior posts, and the take it from there

SPX Keeping It Simple

2010-07-22T10:13:00.004+07:00

So looking at Wednesdays price action, the obvious count is that of a 5 wave decline and the triangle fits in as a 4th wave

But although it don't really look at good as a count, you could use some creative counting and label it as a wxy correction and the triangle is b of [y]

Now how will you know which count is working, simply a move above Wednesdays high kills the near term Bear case

As that would be above the origin of the suspected 5 wave decline, if the markets gaps down today

Now that's not a given that we are going to see a gap down today, it could gap up and above 75ES is a deffo issue for the Bearish labelling and puts the onus back on to the Bulls to use any gap up to push higher and get above Wednesdays high

The steepness of the decline yesterday suggests 3rd wave price action and the sideways move is that of what i would expect for a 4th wave triangle, so the 5 wave impulse counts better here if the market opens with a gap down

Then from there should be a bounce, its that bounce that will confirm the setup

So we then get confirmation of Bullish or Bearish

Make no mistake, even thou i like the Bullish option, if i see a gap down here on Thursday that then only gives a weak bounce and fails to get above 75ES, i am aggressive short

Elliott Count or not, failure to get any traction on the upside is a weak sign and this this market needs to be sold regardless of an Elliott Count

However get a gap up here and aggressive upside, keeps me looking higher back above 1100SPX

So the 75ES area is about where a decision should be made on who owns this market

DOW Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-22T09:36:00.004+07:00

I am still in the Bullish camp in Equities, and will allow for a brief poke under Tuesdays low if needed as i have explained before

Then i need to see aggressive upside, failure to see that upside, will have me get aggressive short and fade any bounce that is weak

The issue will always remain how to count that prior rally that started on 3/7

Now the DOW put in a new low the SPX truncated there, so one of the reasons i am still Bullish is that imo that's a 5 wave impulse move

So i am treating any decline as a correction and also using a truncation on the SPX and other sectors

Some like the BKX are getting close to breaking that important low, so i am aware of the negativity in other markets and fully aware that we could also be on a setup for far lower prices

BUT

Until i see some downside confirmation, you simply don't have a very high confidence move unless you are going to use stops at the prior swing high/swing points to confirm/negate the counts

Now if the Bear count takes over, the bounce will be weak and at Wednesday's high, it will not be breached

The Bulls need to make a stance here and reverse this market, or its setting up for a decline

I suspect as well that the USD/CAD pair is also going to breakout to the upside and really move towards 1.10

So whilst we were looking lower on Wednesday from 83/7ES resistance cluster, the idea was a 3 wave move into the 70ES area, we got that, so that was the easy part

The hard part is now trying to confirm which count is going to be the operative working count

Wednesdays high now key resistance for the Bears, the Bulls need an aggressive move to the upside here and really hitting the buy button

Failure to do that will get us aggressive short at i suspect around the 72/5ES area on a bounce after what could be a gap down today

If Globex gaps up above 75ES that will kill the potential 5 wave decline that started from yesterdays high

BKX Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-22T09:23:00.002+07:00

The Banks are looking heavy and if the Bullish count is going to get some traction then the banks need to be part of it

I can use some creative counting to label a Bearish count (shown in red), again the labeling degrees are irrelevant, as i can adjust those to suit when/where it decides to move

But this is near a reversal or its going to bust the prior lows, a bounce should kick in like on the SPX/ES as the EOD price action looked like a small triangle so expecting a thrust, unless Globex gaps up above 75ES then that will trap many that held on into the close on Wednesday

SPX Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-22T09:07:00.005+07:00

I will show both ways to count the current gyration off the highs made this week

The Bull count (shown in Black) either Bottomed on Tuesday, or as i have suggested can see a brief poke under then MUST reverse to the upside aggressively so 44/7ES is in play

The Bear (shown in red) is the start of the wave 3 to hell and a series of 1s & 2s and will just keep start stepping lower now in 5 wave declines and corrective in 3 waves

So both counts will need to see under Tuesdays low and the rally off that will confirm if a small bounce of it will get aggressive on the upside

So to remain Bearish Wednesday high needs to hold as key resistance now

Key support is still at 1016.19SPX but under 44ES and the Bear will start to get the upper hand

Any bounce that fails to get back above 75ES is a sell, so a new low is needed in Thursdays session, above 75ES on a gap up will trap the Bears and will only be a correction and no 5 wave decline, both counts need to see a gap down in Thursdays session

From that bounce we can confirm where its likely to go and get on the trend

The range is getting tighter and tighter so a choice is going to be made very shortly, and once its confirmed its time to pile on and i suspect the move once it moves away from this area will be aggressive

AUD/USD Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-21T21:40:00.003+07:00

Well i finally think i have a decent idea, and this is a [b] wave and a small ED for wave c of [b] so a bit higher then roll over and head lower in wave [c]

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2010-07-21T21:04:00.000+07:00

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"3rd of 3rd" Crash Wave To Pukesville

2010-07-21T14:15:00.008+07:00

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/equity-update-2

Well its gone mainstream now

When you are suggesting counts and going public about a "3rd of 3rd" i sometimes wonder are you going glory hunting for the "amazing call" or are you doing it for publicity

Remember if the call don't work out, it will simply get brushed aside with the previous calls, there is a difference between suggesting the call and actually trading that call, if someone puts on money and looses $$$, where does he/she know where your wrong on that setup

That call is as worthless as a chocolate teapot

What is the risk??, where is it wrong??, where is the other options??

To be fair to Zerohedge, it does have some great parts to it, but it sure can get a bit melodramatic

Now that its public and the Bears are looking for "3rd of 3rd" wave to hell, don't anyone think that some of the larger banks are not going to read such a high profile website and work it out that everyone is setting up for the crash wave to hell and be net buyers and force the squeeze

I mean has anyone actually looked at other markets or is this "follow my leader" and because EWI are suggesting it, it has to be right then???

Does anyone actually look at other charts and looked at the other evidence in the "risk trade"

As i say lets get under 66ES then 55ES then we can start talking about Bearish counts

Until then Buy corrective looking pullbacks

There are other options as i have showed that allow for correct counting on Equities, if the evidence weighed in on the Mega Bearish count, i would be pushing that count aggressively, but i would not do justice to it not by suggesting it when i don't have the evidence to back up that count

Edit- 1080 in the article is the risk point, but i guess the Bears never really understood what was happening in other markets and they never had the USD/CAD pair for clues, I guess they never had access to what the pit was doing and how it kept us out of trouble by NOT selling this market

AAPL Short Term Elliott Wave Count

2010-07-21T13:36:00.004+07:00

Sell the news???

I think so, this is a great looking count, and one that suggests any gap up today is near to or the end of wave [c] of an expanded flat of 2/B

So if you have access to sell AAPL, this can be a great trade setup to sell this stock

Now this doesn't necessary happen today, as it might need a small pullback and then rally a bit higher, but its got the right look to it as a C wave of a flat

All that is really required is to see above the wave [a] crest at $263 so towards $265-268 resistance cluster looks a good target

SPX Long term Elliot Wave Count

2010-07-21T13:01:00.004+07:00

Here is the more Bullish of the 2 counts i am following and now started a Big 3rd wave higher, now the wave 2, can still see a push lower, just like the other setup back towards 44ES, but if the low in in, which is has good grounds for it with the 5 wave advance and reversal in the USD/CAD, we really should not have any bizniz back under 60ES

So we are about to start a series of 12,12s and get aggressive on the upside, and really squeeze hard all those crash callers

Out of the 2 i like the previous count where we find resistance for the end to wave [c] of B of [Y]

However if the triangle has indeed finished on the USD/CAD pair and going for new yearly lows, then this is the count that takes the SPX to new yearly highs

Yes you read that right NEW YEARLY HIGHS

SPX Long term Elliot Wave Count

2010-07-21T12:45:00.004+07:00

This is the preferred working count and that we get to see a move towards 1110-1120SPX and this is wave [c] of B of [Y]

Where its then would reverse lower and trap many that bought into the highs

So you see i am short term Bullish but looking for at least a move above 1100SPX from here , against yesterdays low, now if we were to loose yesterdays low, that's not necessary Bearish until under 44ES

As you can still be in a corrective move from 1099SPX and back towards 44ES

As i have showed we are in a war, and this is going to be a nasty tape, but with some pattern and numbers we will have some setups to negate confirm above or below key areas

Going what the USD/CAD shows and how it responds will also have a big effect on Equities, as the triangle set on that pair that thrusts in wave C to 1.10 will the the working count

SPX Keeping It Simple

2010-07-21T12:33:00.004+07:00

The Bulls have a good start to what i think could be a strong move higher, however, lets also not get carried away with that Bullish perspective, as we still need to see weakness on the USD/CAD and follow through from yesterdays big downside reversal

Furthermore the SPX has to get above the Down trend line resistance as well as recapturing the 50DMA and the 200DMA above

There is significant resistance for the Bulls to get above, but they have a great start now they need to use that and not let it go

So the Bulls know where its wrong against Tuesdays low, but i really want to see the 60ES hold any downside pressure ideally 66/8ES is seen as support in any corrective looking move lower where it would setup a move higher

There are other options i can also see and that suggests a new low under yesterday low for a brief poke and what you saw was the end to c of [b] or [x] and then new lows

But those setups on the USD/CAD will also come into play as well, as this is a war zone in both Equities and the USD/CAD, so traders need to be quick and nimble and getting out when wrong quickly

Also the RSI resistance has to be dealt with as well