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Friday, July 30, 2010

FTSE Short Term Elliott Wave Count


Off the highs, it can be counted as a small Leading Diagonal (LD) so either wave i or a

Bears risk is to the wave ii/b highs at 5375

Simply put if the FTSE has topped, then you don't see that breached

So any decline from here will need to start to accelerate to get to the Bear case going to the downside

So that means the the ES holds well below 1103ES and needs to stay below 96ES

There is some important news out from the US today so could be an important mover, but the gyration are complete off the 20th Jul lows

If the Bulls own this market then any decline will be weak and an abc type move and around the 5160-5200 needs to hold, any lower than 5160 (remember that's been strong support) is going to swing the case to the Bears, especially now as it should be in wave iii on the Bear case

So lets pay close attention to any drop here, as for the Bear case, it needs to be solid and really start to be puking and get below the 1x1 as that would suggest 3rd wave type move

Remember it needs to start to look and feel like a small 3rd wave off the highs for the Bear case, anything that don't look like that Bears need to be cautious about that as it could only be a 1x1, a 3rd wave regardless of the wave degree should be obvious in the context as which it is expected, so if it don't look or feel right, you should be cautious about the idea, same as the Bulls, if you only expect an abc type pullback but its showing you something far more Bearish, you need to be cautious and respect that, so we are at a near term important juncture and one that is likely setting up a trend based move and a trade that could last a few weeks

The Bullish 12,12 count is still poss here, just as it could be on the SPX, so this decline as on the SPX will need to remain corrective, ie some sort of 3 wave decline, if it start to puke and head lower than 5200-5160 odds favour a reversal and you just saw the high to the rally being put in and the start was a small LD

Near term support is at 5260

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Statement – being right means nothing if you don’t profit from that call, anyone can make market calls and show analysis of the market, NOT everyone can take the risk and trade the correct trade to make $$$$ You are ALWAYS learning, never under-estimate the market, she has a way of hurting you in the most obscene places Let it be said, traders should trade and use their own judgement and opinions, if you agree or disagree with my analysis of the market then you and you alone will still need to make the choice of putting your money at risk with appropriate stops, i can not be responsible for any losses that come from my analysis. Questions can be e-mailed to: ewavenoufy@yahoo.co.uk

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