
Off the highs, it can be counted as a small Leading Diagonal (LD) so either wave i or a
Bears risk is to the wave ii/b highs at 5375
Simply put if the FTSE has topped, then you don't see that breached
So any decline from here will need to start to accelerate to get to the Bear case going to the downside
So that means the the ES holds well below 1103ES and needs to stay below 96ES
There is some important news out from the US today so could be an important mover, but the gyration are complete off the 20th Jul lows
If the Bulls own this market then any decline will be weak and an abc type move and around the 5160-5200 needs to hold, any lower than 5160 (remember that's been strong support) is going to swing the case to the Bears, especially now as it should be in wave iii on the Bear case
So lets pay close attention to any drop here, as for the Bear case, it needs to be solid and really start to be puking and get below the 1x1 as that would suggest 3rd wave type move
Remember it needs to start to look and feel like a small 3rd wave off the highs for the Bear case, anything that don't look like that Bears need to be cautious about that as it could only be a 1x1, a 3rd wave regardless of the wave degree should be obvious in the context as which it is expected, so if it don't look or feel right, you should be cautious about the idea, same as the Bulls, if you only expect an abc type pullback but its showing you something far more Bearish, you need to be cautious and respect that, so we are at a near term important juncture and one that is likely setting up a trend based move and a trade that could last a few weeks
The Bullish 12,12 count is still poss here, just as it could be on the SPX, so this decline as on the SPX will need to remain corrective, ie some sort of 3 wave decline, if it start to puke and head lower than 5200-5160 odds favour a reversal and you just saw the high to the rally being put in and the start was a small LD
Near term support is at 5260
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